← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 16 | 11-2-3 | 78.1% | 72.5% | 65.7% | +6.3 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 56.4% | +2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 63.1% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 53.7% | +1.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 55.3% | +2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 56.8% | +3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 63.7% | +6.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.0% | +4.4 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Cerulean Decree, Torrential Blast. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Rimesoul Bishop, Nullifying Lantern.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Avalon, Cursed Isle | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |